24HR - SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

24HR SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED: 251700Z
VALID:   260000Z - 261200Z

DEFINITIONS...


NOTICE LEVEL...THIS REPRESENTS A GREATER THAN 5 % CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING WITHIN THE GREEN REGION ON THE MAP.

CAUTION LEVEL...THIS REPRESENTS A GREATER THAN 10% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING WITHIN THE YELLOW REGION ON THE MAP.

ALERT LEVEL...THIS REPRESENTS A GREATER THAN 30% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING WITHIN THE RED REGION ON THE MAP.

SYNOPSIS...
WE EXPECT ONE OR TWO LARGE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE LONG-LIVED IN THAT A NEW LOW MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL PULL ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THUS WE BELIEVE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER ENHANCEMENT DOWNSTREAM.  HOWEVER, WE ARE CONTINUING A CAUTION LEVEL IN THAT WE EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR, BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHEN THE STORMS INITIATED.

WE ADDED A NOTICE AREA TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THAT WE THINK MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH OUT OF NM AND AZ WILL GET ENTRAINED IN FRONT OF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CA.  WE THINK STORMS THOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO DYNAMICS WITH NEW LOW.

RISKS IN CAUTION LEVEL...

...TORNADOES...< 5%
...DAMAGING WINDS...< 20%
...DAMAGING HAIL... 20 > %

RISKS IN NOTICE LEVEL...

...TORNADOES...NONE
...DAMAGING WINDS...< 10 %
...DAMAGING HAIL...< 5%

RS...